Apparently I haven’t learned my lesson since predicting a Peggy Nash victory in this year’s NDP leadership race. I may not have the statistical wherewithal or ear-to-the-ground perspicacity of an Eric Grenier, but I cannot resist the peculiar temptation — that siren song that has marked the downfall of politicos far greater than I — of making a forecast. Without further ado, here is what I think will happen in tomorrow’s provincial election in Quebec:
The Parti Quebecois will win a minority government. A relatively large minority — perhaps close enough to majority territory that Quebec solidaire’s two or so seats could help them fashion a workable coalition.
The Liberals, meanwhile, will make Official Opposition. Notwithstanding their second-place finish in seats, however, they will be relegated to third place in the popular vote at the hands of the upstart Coalition Avenir Quebec. Furthermore, Premier Charest will fail to carry his own riding.
Finally, Option nationale and my beloved Greens (despite my inexplicably unheeded endorsement) will win zero seats each. Or between them, I suppose.
Prove me wrong, Quebec. I dare you.
Update 4/9/2012: Quebec has proven me wrong. But only a little. By my count, I made eight predictions in the above post, two of which turned out wrong. Could have been much worse. Loyal readers of this blog are encouraged to identify and list all eight of my predictions in the comments section below. All who do so correctly will be rewarded with a limerick composed by yours truly.